The Numbers Don't Lie: São Paulo's Migration Surge Hits Record Highs as City Demands Federal Response

São Paulo registered more than 142,000 new migrant arrivals in the first six months of 2026, the highest half-year figure since the federal government began systematic tracking in 2018, according to data released Thursday by the city's Secretaria Municipal de Direitos Humanos. Mayor Ricardo Nunes has formally requested emergency federal funding — R$380 million — to expand shelter capacity and documentation services before the year-end number eclipses the full-year 2024 record of 198,000.

The surge matters now for reasons beyond raw headcount. Europe is reeling from a summer of compound crises — heatwaves that killed more than 2,000 people in France alone, instability radiating from the war in Ukraine, and the political aftershock of Iran's leadership transition — all of which historically redirect asylum-seeker flows toward South America. Brazil, and São Paulo in particular, functions as the continent's de facto reception hub. When global displacement spikes, the 33 million people of Greater São Paulo feel it first in the queues outside Bom Prato restaurants and in the waiting rooms of Centro de Referência e Atendimento para Imigrantes, known as CRAI, on Avenida Liberdade.

Where the Numbers Are Piling Up

CRAI, which occupies a converted building on Rua Galvão Bueno in the Liberdade neighbourhood, processed 19,400 individual cases between January and June — a 61 percent jump over the same period in 2025. The unit was designed with a monthly throughput of roughly 2,200 cases. Staff shortages have pushed average wait times for documentation support from 12 days to 31 days. The city is also leaning heavily on the Associação Brasileira de Apoio e Defesa dos Imigrantes, ABADI, which operates three support nuclei in Brás, Bela Vista, and Sapopemba — all neighbourhoods where informal migrant labour markets are densest.

Venezuelan nationals remain the single largest group, representing 38 percent of new arrivals. Haitians account for another 19 percent, a share that has grown steadily since the 7.2-magnitude earthquake that struck Venezuela's western Mérida state in late June killed at least 230 people and displaced an estimated 45,000 more. Observers at CRAI say the Mérida disaster is already visible in intake numbers: the final week of June alone produced 4,100 new registrations, the highest weekly total ever recorded at the centre.

The Federal Funding Gap

The city's formal appeal to the Lula administration, filed June 30 with the Ministério da Justiça e Segurança Pública, lays out a stark arithmetic. São Paulo currently spends approximately R$1,200 per migrant per month on a combined package of emergency shelter, basic healthcare access, and Portuguese-language classes through the Programa São Paulo pelos Imigrantes. Multiply that by 142,000 arrivals projected to need services for an average of 4.5 months and the annual exposure reaches roughly R$767 million — against a municipal budget line of R$412 million for the entire year. The gap is R$355 million, close to the R$380 million emergency request.

Federal officials have not publicly committed to any figure. Brasília has pointed to the Política Nacional de Migrações, Refúgio e Apatridia, enacted in 2023, which outlines shared-cost principles but does not set mandatory federal minimums for municipal expenditure. City hall argues that principle has never been translated into an actual transfer formula, leaving São Paulo to absorb costs that should be spread across the União.

Practically speaking, the crunch point arrives in September. That is when municipal shelter contracts for 14 facilities — including three large centres in Mooca, Santo André, and Guarulhos — come up for annual renewal. If federal money is not committed by mid-August, city finance officials say contracts will need to be renegotiated at reduced capacity, cutting available beds from roughly 6,800 to under 4,000. Organisations working with migrant communities say they are advising new arrivals to register with CRAI immediately, before any contraction takes effect, and to apply concurrently for the federal Cadastro Único social registry, which unlocks access to Bolsa Família payments even for non-citizens granted humanitarian visa status.